Should austerity play a part in the next General Election?
It should in my view, as we are still suffering from and because of it. Services provided by local councils of all political colours have been cut to the bone so we have limited care for children in need and the elderly, more potholes than you can shake a stick at, less libraries etc. etc.
Austerity actually started under Gordon Brown when he cut spending after the 2007 financial crash, it then became the big issue during the 2010 General Election when most politicians and many ordinary folk accepted that it should happen. In fact all 3 major parties went into that election pledging cuts to public finances, yes even Labour! In fact they pledged to make £1b in extra cuts in the 2010 Parliament than the rather disliked Coalition Government actually did make. Not my ‘facts’ look at this:-
Of course when the Conservatives took absolute control in 2015 they put their foot to the boards in terms of austerity and across much of the public sector it continues to this very day, with effectively only one-off injections of cash when services start to fall apart big time.
Present day austerity has little to do with 2007 and something to do with funding Ukraine, Covid and of course Brexit. However, it is also a political doctrine very much loved by those who want a public sector as small as possible. 2007, Ukraine, Covid and Brexit have just been useful things to enable those who actually are wholly committed to austerity in whatever economic circumstances.
Will it continue? Almost certainly, both under the Conservatives (if they retain power) and indeed Labour. You only have to listen to Starmer or Reeves to realise they’re planning few changes that will change the austerity era. However, they’ll blame things beyond their control and problems they inherited which actually is only partly true in my view. Labour could be offering hope that things can be better but they are too afraid of doing so.
I’ve said before that austerity should only have lasted 2 or maybe 3 years into the 2010 Parliament, that it continued and indeed deepened made us all the more unprepared for Covid, a financially suicidal Brexit and the war in Ukraine. When you’ve cut back on pretty much everything don’t be surprised when you can’t react properly to significant events.
The 2007 financial crash panicked our political class across the board giving rise to the pledges at the 2010 GE. However, it also played into the hands of the small state politicians who grasped austerity tightly and made it, so far, a 14 year and counting era!
I agree with much of your analysis here, Tony. There's a reason all parties were offering austerity in 2010 - it was necessary. With hindsight I agree it was sustained for too long, partly because the economy was actually doing better than it appeared (remember Ed Balls's flatlining gesture? Turned out there was growth). I would argue that the stronger financial position helped when it came to funding the covid response which, yes, has to be paid for. If the small state supporters saw an opportunity they failed: it's bigger than ever. I think it's a rather different set of problems we face now. Yes, departments like local government have had real terms cuts. Not to have a smaller state but to feed the insatiable needs of the NHS
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